NFL contender concerns: What might sink the Chiefs, Lions, Bills and Eagles? Sando’s Pick Six

The Detroit Lions own the NFL’s longest win streak at 11 games. The Philadelphia Eagles extended theirs to nine Sunday, while the Buffalo Bills’ streak ended at seven. The Minnesota Vikings won their sixth straight. The Kansas City Chiefs (12-1) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3) also won.

With the NFL playoffs a month away, it’s a good time to assess the NFL’s contenders, pointing out where the top teams could be vulnerable, and how teams a notch below them could join their ranks.

The Pick Six column begins there and dives deep into some of the hottest topics in Week 14:

• Contender questions, answers
• Bryce Young following Sam Darnold?
• Debating Dan Campbell on fourth down
• How running backs win MVP
• Why Belichick to UNC is believable
• 2-minute drill: Seattle’s defense

1. Four teams have the NFL’s best Super Bowl odds by far. Four others are in the next tier. Let’s take a run through them from a couple of angles.

We’ll use The Athletic’s model looking at each team’s chances for winning the Super Bowl when dividing these teams into categories.

Where the top contenders could be vulnerable (chance to win the Super Bowl in parentheses):

• Chiefs (19%): Patrick Mahomes’ health and the situation at cornerback opposite Trent McDuffie could be perilous enough to derail Kansas City.

Mahomes took hit after hit Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers even before recently signed left tackle D.J. Humphries departed the game with a hamstring injury. Mahomes has taken 35 sacks, eight more than he’s taken in a full season. His sack rate (7.0 percent) is a career high by a wide margin. Humphries’ health could be critical for Kansas City to become more explosive and protect Mahomes.

Some in the league have wondered if Mahomes is already playing hurt. That thought came to mind when the Chiefs opted for a field goal try instead of going for it on a late fourth down against Las Vegas last week.

“They have some issues on defense, too,” an exec said. “People are throwing at (cornerback) Nazeeh Johnson. (Nickel) Chamarri Conner has struggled.”

That could be bad in a playoff rematch against the Bills, whose offense accounts for five of the Chiefs’ 18 worst defensive EPA games since 2021, counting playoffs.

The Chiefs are the 26th team to start 12-1 and the only one with a point differential worse than plus-89, per Pro Football Reference (theirs is plus-56, which ranks 11th in the NFL this season).

“They keep pulling rabbits out of their hats,” another exec said. “It’s almost like an NBA team that only plays when they have to.”

• Lions (17%): The Lions rank second in defensive EPA per play, incredible when considering how many injuries Detroit has suffered. Only one member of the Lions’ defensive front seven from their Week 14 victory over Green Bay was on the roster in Week 1. Is this sustainable into the playoffs?

If the defense falls off, the Lions could find themselves trailing against top teams, which could put them into obvious passing situations more frequently. Jared Goff has 42 touchdown passes with seven interceptions since the start of last season when tied or leading, counting playoffs. He has 17 touchdowns with 15 interceptions over that span when trailing. It’s something to watch as Detroit battles through the defensive injuries.

“I also have a concern about their head coach (Dan Campbell) not clicking into playoff mode, where teams really count the possessions and he wants to keep pushing his fourth-down strategy,” another exec said. “That was costly in their playoff loss (to San Francisco) last season. Can he adjust to the way those games are played, when each one of those possessions is higher leverage?”

We’ll cover more of that ground later in the column.

• Bills (13%): The entire defense seemed concerning Sunday as the Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford posted his second-best EPA/pass play game in 227 career starts, counting postseason, per TruMedia. Stafford completed 10 passes for gains longer than 15 yards, tied for eighth-most in his career, while taking zero sacks in the Rams’ 44-42 victory. The Bills still might have won had the Rams not blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown.

If Sunday was a one-off shootout, the Bills’ run defense could be a top concern — not a terrible concern to have when Josh Allen is your quarterback, but still something to watch.

Buffalo entered Sunday allowing explosive rushes (12-plus yards) on 11.4 percent of carries, which ranked 31st and was the worst for Buffalo since 2019. That rate fell below 11 percent after Sunday as the Rams moved the chains with shorter runs on their way to 10 rushing first downs.

Still, only three of the past 48 Super Bowl teams allowed explosive rushes more than 9.9 percent of the time: the 2018 Patriots (12 percent), 2006 Colts (11.9 percent) and 2018 Rams (11.1 percent). The average was 7.3 percent.

Off the field, coach Sean McDermott’s handling of the final sequence Sunday — calling a quarterback sneak at the expense of a timeout that could have been useful for a last-minute rally — recalled past game-management issues that have hurt Buffalo. Those issues haven’t been pronounced lately, but when the stakes are higher in the playoffs, the Bills must be on point.

• Eagles (13%): The Eagles are scoring 1.3 offensive points per game in first quarters, which ranks 792nd out of 796 teams since 2000. That is last among the 368 teams since then that are either above. 500 now or finished their seasons with winning records. Falling behind against good teams in the playoffs could disrupt the Eagles’ winning formula, which has featured Saquon Barkley setting the franchise single-season rushing record after only 13 games, while Jalen Hurts is attempting only 25 passes per game, down from 32 last season.

The Eagles face no other pressing concerns as long as they can keep Hurts from pure-pass situations, similar to the concerns for Detroit with Goff.

“It is amazing how they have evolved and how (Nick) Sirianni now is Coach of the Year material,” an exec said. “Can Sirianni keep it going another month? They have players and they have really competent coordinators. I think they learned from what happened last year. The defensive guys especially are in a better place. They have punched the clock better and more consistently as workers than they did last year.”

How teams in the next tier could threaten them:

• Vikings (5%): We’ll dive deeper into Sam Danold’s resurgence in the next item, but his trajectory shows Minnesota still has growth potential heading toward the playoffs. Darnold has 11 touchdown passes without an interception in four games since tossing three picks against Jacksonville. The more experience he gains with this team, in this offense, the better prepared he should become.

• Packers (5%): Green Bay should have even more growth potential as the NFL’s youngest team if one of the receivers can emerge as a reliable go-to threat in critical situations, and if the cornerback position stabilizes. There’s not much evidence those things are going to happen quickly, but with Jordan Love averaging a league-high 10.3 yards per attempt since Week 11 (four games), there are positive signs.

“I don’t have any huge concerns about Green Bay,” an exec said. “I just don’t know if they are as good as Philly or even Minnesota, to a point. They may be the third- or fourth-best team (in the NFC), but that may just be where their talent level is.”

• Ravens (5%): The last time the Ravens had a new defensive coordinator, in 2022, they improved significantly on that side of the ball following their bye. If they can pull off something similar this season, and if kicker Justin Tucker can recapture past form, Baltimore will become a more formidable threat.

Otherwise, Lamar Jackson figures to remain the NFL’s most betrayed quarterback: leading the NFL in EPA per pass play for the No. 1 offense by EPA per play, tossing 29 touchdowns with only three interceptions, but having only an 8-5 record to show for it, thanks to the Ravens’ No. 27 ranking in combined defense/special teams EPA.

• Steelers (4%): Pittsburgh is a little like the Vikings, except Russell Wilson is much more experienced and proven than Darnold. His first seven starts with the Steelers have raised the ceiling for a team that hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season.

Wilson has seemingly gone from limiting what Sean Payton wanted to do in Denver to enabling what Arthur Smith wants to do in Pittsburgh. The personality fit might be the key there. Whatever the case, Pittsburgh could plausibly make a deeper push.

“You don’t think they could go play the Chiefs in Kansas City and run the ball and play defense and hold their own and be right there in the fourth quarter, the way the Chiefs are playing?” an exec asked.

2. The resurgent Sam Darnold tossed five touchdown passes for the Minnesota Vikings in their 42-21 victory over the Atlanta Falcons. Is Carolina’s Bryce Young also on a path to redemption?

Here’s how much Darnold struggled across the 58 starts he made before signing with the Vikings in the offseason: Only three of the 65 other quarterbacks making their first 58 starts since 2000 produced lower EPA per play over that career span.

And now? Darnold’s 2024 EPA per play would rank 25th on that list of 65 quarterbacks, between Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.

Here’s how much Young struggled across the 18 starts he made before showing signs of improvement over his last six: He ranked last in EPA per pass play among 123 quarterbacks making their first 18 starts since 2000.

His production since then would rank 46th among those 123 quarterbacks, between Marcus Mariota and Jake Locker.

That’s not elite, but it’s ahead of some players whose careers turned out quite well, from Pro Bowlers (Matt Hasselbeck) to Super Bowl winners (Eli Manning, Joe Flacco) to a few stars (Drew Brees, Josh Allen).

Young has been especially improved over the past three games, one-score defeats to Kansas City (30-27), Tampa Bay (26-23, in overtime) and Philadelphia (22-16). He ranks 10th in EPA per pass play over that stretch, right behind Darnold, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson. Two months ago, that would have seemed impossible, even over such a short run.

Carolina was a dropped pass near the goal line away from what could have become an upset victory over the Eagles — an outcome considered so unlikely that a bettor had risked more than $3 million on the Eagles for a shot at winning less than $500,000. Young, despite modest numbers against the Eagles, does not appear to be the same player whom coach Dave Canales benched after Week 2. What has changed?

Darnold’s resurgence is further along and more easily explained. He’s left bad situations with the New York Jets and Carolina Panthers for a very good situation in Minnesota. Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell gets much credit, of course, but this franchise might be king of the memorable one-off quarterback season.

Randall Cunningham, Daunte Culpepper and Brett Favre (heck, even Case Keenum) were not long-term starters for the team, but each produced a special season in Minnesota. Darnold has joined their ranks unexpectedly in 2024, earning a spot in the upper-right quadrant of the chart below, which compares every quarterback season in team history through 13 games.

Darnold’s 27 touchdown passes through 13 games trail only the 31 Culpepper completed to this point in the 2004 season. His 8.5-yard average per pass attempt ranks third behind 1998 Cunningham (9.6) and 1988 Wade Wilson (8.9) among the 21 Vikings quarterbacks who combined for 63 qualifying seasons (minimum 200 pass attempts through 13 games).

3. Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decision in the final minute was the talk of the league in Week 14. It was either smart, reckless or somewhere in between, which says all we need to know about these decisions.

We’ve become conditioned to consulting fourth-down models whenever a coach makes the type of decision Campbell made against Green Bay on Thursday night.

Often we say coaches are aggressive when they are just being optimal.

But this one?! This one was *actually* aggressive. pic.twitter.com/WKY7JFo0AN

— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 6, 2024

In this case, ESPN’s fourth-down model thought the Lions would have been better off trying a 38-yard field goal instead of going for it on fourth-and-1 from the Green Bay 21 with the score tied and 43 seconds remaining in regulation. Campbell called a running play instead. The Lions converted, and because Green Bay had no timeouts, Detroit ran down the clock for the walk-off field goal.

This was a seemingly rare case of a coach being more aggressive than a mainstream fourth-down model recommended. But it’s not that simple. An exec from another team said the model his team consults thought Detroit was correct. An exec from yet another team thought Campbell was being reckless and could be at high risk for making a nonsensical decision in a playoff game.

“That’s why these (models) are bulls–t, because nobody knows,” one of the execs said. “It’s been an interesting journey for a lot of people who have gone from huge believers in these (models) to thinking we are relying on them too heavily. They have given us a good base to understand risk, but there are so many other factors that you really just have to rely on the coach to identify how you want to win the game, and execute it.”

Let’s run through some of the “many other factors” affecting Campbell’s decision:

• Distance to go: Not all fourth-and-1’s are the same. The Lions had about one-half yard to go on this one, increasing the likelihood of a conversion.

• Lions’ offense: The Lions are well-equipped to convert short-yardage runs because of their strong offensive line and running backs, although they came up short on a fourth-and-1 earlier in the game and have converted at a league-average 71 percent rate since 2023.

• Defensive injuries: Only one member of the Lions’ defensive front seven for this game was on the roster in Week 1. This gave Campbell reason to worry about stopping the Packers if Green Bay possessed the ball again.

Per TruMedia, this was the 10th time since 2000 that a team was in the situation Detroit faced: possessing the ball from the plus-25 to the plus-2 yard lines with no more than 50 seconds remaining in regulation, facing fourth-and-1 when the opponent had zero timeouts (see table below).

All 10 teams won the game. The Lions were the only team to go for it. One of the other teams missed its field goal try, then won in overtime. Detroit had given up 31 points before making its decision. That’s more than any of the other nine teams had allowed to that point in the game. Detroit was also the only team operating under newly adopted touchback rules, which allow teams to start possession at their own 30 instead of their own 25.

“I give a lot of credit to Dan Campbell for having the guts to make all those decisions and to go for an unpopular fourth down after he missed an unpopular fourth down earlier in the game,” one of the execs said. “It does show you the power of support from ownership. He has full support and then on top of the full support, he pushes that support down to his players, so it becomes a mindset thing for him.”

4. Saquon Barkley’s MVP push invites a basic question. What does it take for a running back to win the award? Here’s the answer.

Barkley’s candidacy might come down to one variable, assuming his current production continues: Does the story of Barkley finding spectacular success with the Philadelphia Eagles after the division-rival New York Giants let him reach free agency, as documented for the world to see on HBO’s “Hard Knocks,” create a compelling enough narrative for voters to crown him?

The narrative component seems especially important for Barkley because, unlike the previous six running backs to win the award, his career has not been building to an MVP moment. Leading the league in rushing yards and scrimmage yards, as Barkley does, has not in recent decades been enough to win the award by itself.

Unlike Barkley, the previous six winners had been stacking elite seasons for years, finally reaching a point where voters felt compelled to honor their greatness with the ultimate individual award.

As the table above shows, four of the previous six running backs to win the award ranked first or second in scrimmage yards over the previous five seasons, not just in their MVP years. Barkley ranks 28th in scrimmage yards over the previous five seasons and 18th over the previous three, without getting an MVP vote. His momentum has been building only since he signed with the Eagles in March. That hurts him.

Barkley, on pace for an NFL single-season record 2,122 yards rushing, needs a compelling narrative, especially in an age when more people understand quarterbacks’ outsized value. Some of the previous six MVP backs beat out top QBs, but their candidacies did not hinge on a single season:

• Adrian Peterson (2012, 61 percent of MVP vote): Peterson led the NFL in scrimmage yards over the previous five seasons. He won the award with an incredible bounce-back season (2,097 yards rushing) after suffering a torn ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve 2011.

Peterson’s 199-yard rushing performance against Green Bay on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 17 lifted the Vikings to a 37-34 victory to clinch a playoff berth at 10-6 despite 365 yards and four touchdown passes from Aaron Rodgers.

Returning from the injury and carrying an unremarkable team to the playoffs with a 2,000-yard season created a strong enough narrative for Peterson to beat out Peyton Manning and Tom Brady — but only after Peterson had already dominated for years without winning the award.

• LaDainian Tomlinson (2006, 88 percent): Tomlinson also led the NFL in scrimmage yards over the previous five seasons. His 31 touchdowns broke Shaun Alexander’s record. Tomlinson also led the league in Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (26) for a 14-2 Chargers team.

• Shaun Alexander (2005, 38 percent): Alexander led the NFL in rushing over the previous two seasons, broke Faulk’s record for touchdowns in a season (28) and led the league in AV (28) for the 13-3 Seahawks.

• Marshall Faulk (2000, 48 percent): Faulk led the NFL in scrimmage yards over the previous five seasons and set an NFL record with 26 touchdowns in his MVP season.

• Terrell Davis (1998, 53 percent): Davis ranked second to Barry Sanders in scrimmage yards over the previous three seasons. He had gained 581 yards in the previous postseason, second only to John Riggins’ 610 in the 1982 playoffs, as Denver won a Super Bowl for the first time. Davis was perceived as the catalyst for John Elway finally winning a Super Bowl.

• Barry Sanders (1997, 38 percent): Sanders ranked second to Emmitt Smith in scrimmage yards over the previous five seasons. He shared MVP honors with Brett Favre.

5. My first reaction to the news Bill Belichick interviewed for the North Carolina job included a rolling of the eyes. My second reaction was quite different.

The Athletic’s Steve Buckley wrote a humorous column questioning the fit for Belichick on a college campus, comparing the 72-year-old former New England Patriots coach to the Rodney Dangerfield character, Thornton Melon, from the 1986 comedy “Back to School.”

Some NFL executives also laughed at the idea.

Kidding aside, Belichick taking a college job like the one available at North Carolina could be more realistic than one might think initially.

Let us count the ways:

• No NFL job: It’s plausible there will be no NFL coaching job available to Belichick in the coming cycle. He interviewed with the Atlanta Falcons last offseason but did not get the job. Very few teams, if any, appear willing to hand over full control to Belichick. The odds of that changing could be low.

“Jacksonville is the one place he could get whatever power he is looking for,” an NFL team exec said. “Is he trying to get (Jaguars owner) Shad Khan to make a move?”

Doug Pederson remains Jaguars’ coach for now.

• Desire to coach: Belichick did not want to leave the Patriots. He wanted to coach last season. He wants to coach in the future. If there’s no NFL job for him to take, the college ranks would be the next-best thing for a coaching lifer with a strong desire to teach.

• Father’s history: Belichick’s love for history is documented. His father, Steve, coached at North Carolina from 1953 to 1955 before finishing his coaching career at Navy. This wouldn’t be a reason for Bill Belichick to take the job there, but it’s a nice little footnote.

• Setting up son: This is the big one. If Belichick took the North Carolina job, his son Steve would reportedly be named successor in waiting. This could be a big draw for a coaching father.

If an NFL team did come after the elder Belichick, Bill could leave North Carolina to take the NFL job, helping himself and his son in one move. Could it get much better than that from a father’s perspective?

So many powerful coaches have tried to set up their sons for success in the sport.

Belichick, Mike Zimmer, Andy Reid, Pete Carroll, Jack Del Rio, Dean Pees, Norv Turner, Gary Kubiak, Marvin Lewis, Mike Shanahan, Jim Harbaugh, Monte Kiffin and Lovie Smith head a long list of recent coaches whose sons worked with or under them in the NFL.

It’s clearly a priority for Belichick, whose two sons, Steve and Brian, worked on his Patriots staffs (Brian is still with New England, while Steve is the defensive coordinator at the University of Washington).

• College rules: Belichick could get total or near-total control of a college program more easily than he could have either with an NFL team.

“It is easier to replicate what he had in New England at a college,” an exec said. “He doesn’t have to ask the GM anything. He can just pay people. He and his coaches can have autonomy. The pros is not like that.”

But would it really be easier?

“Remember when Bill sent Randy Moss (among others) home after he was late to a team meeting (in 2009)?” another exec asked. “How’s it going to work in FBS when players are late to meetings, tests and the team bus? Who runs scout team when 30 percent of the roster gets sent back to their dorms?”

Belichick might also have to adjust his expectations for meetings.

“Think of an 18-year-old’s attention span when that first in-season team meeting runs 45 minutes with no break as Bill meticulously details the scouting report for Wake Forest’s offense, defense and special teams,” the exec added.

6. Two-minute drill: Macdonald turning Seahawks’ defense into Ravens West?

Seahawks linebacker Ernest Jones IV and safety Coby Bryant intercepted consecutive passes from Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray to help Seattle take control of its eventual 30-18 victory at Arizona. These two plays, worth a combined 8.6 EPA, led to 14 actual points as Seattle scored touchdowns on the ensuing drives.

By game’s end, Seattle owned the NFL’s eighth-ranked defense by EPA per play. That’s its highest ranking through Week 14 since the 2017 team ranked sixth at this point. That defense featured familiar names: Michael Bennett and Frank Clark at defensive end, Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright at linebacker, Earl Thomas at safety.

The No. 8 ranking through Week 14 this season is up from No. 28 at the same point in 2023. Seattle ranked no higher than 16th at this point in any of Pete Carroll’s final six seasons as coach.

Mike Macdonald’s defense has been rounding into form for a couple of reasons. The defensive front, led by Leonard Williams, is playing better. Seattle is also getting improved play at linebacker since acquiring Jones, releasing Tyrel Dodson at the bye and getting more from rookie Tyrice Knight.

There are similarities to how Macdonald’s defense took root in Baltimore during the 2022 season, Macdonald’s first as coordinator for the Ravens. That defense started slowly, then improved after acquiring linebacker Roquan Smith during the season.

Both defenses got tougher following Week 10 byes.

Macdonald speaks directly to Jones over the headset between plays.

“He is the first (play caller) I’ve had that has been in the game with us, like he is playing linebacker right next to us,” Jones said of Macdonald. “It almost feels like he is in the game with us. Somehow, he has been spot-on with calls.”

The table below shows where Macdonald’s 2022 Ravens defense and 2024 Seahawks defense ranked after each week of those seasons, with the linebacker acquisitions highlighted.

A big bonus for the Seahawks on Sunday came on offense. They topped 400 yards, rushed for 176, committed no turnovers, converted 7 of 14 third downs, gave up no sacks and absorbed only two quarterback hits. This was Seattle’s most complete game since beating Atlanta 34-14, but now the schedule gets harder. Green Bay and Minnesota, both at home, are next.

• Advantage, Rizzi: We joked a few weeks back about the New Orleans Saints’ reliance on opponent missed field goals as interim coach Darren Rizzi won his first two games. Those missed kicks did not seem sustainable, but how did the Saints score their 14-11 victory over the Giants on Sunday? By blocking the Giants’ attempt at the tying 35-yard field goal. That helped offset an otherwise rough day for the Saints’ special teams after a spectacular three-game run in that phase.

• Eberflus’ good day: It was tough not wondering what fired Bears coach Matt Eberflus was thinking when San Francisco held a 310-2 yardage edge over Chicago shortly before halftime Sunday. With Eberflus no longer calling the defense, the Bears suffered their worst defensive EPA game (-21.1) since Week 8 of 2022 against Dallas, when Eberflus was the head coach but was not calling the defense.

• Timeout strategy: The RedZone Channel’s Scott Hanson asked a question that might have been on viewers’ minds as Seattle ran out the clock on its victory over Arizona. Why had the Cardinals used their timeouts with 7:12, 5:42 and 5:35 remaining in a game the Seahawks led 27-18?

The answer, most likely, is that Arizona is among those teams recognizing just how dire the situation actually is when trailing by two scores that late.

Before Sunday, teams were 0-36 since 2000 when trailing by nine points as their opponents started offensive drives with between six and eight minutes left in regulation, per TruMedia. Baltimore lost one of those games last week at Philadelphia. The Eagles took over possession at 6:11 while leading 21-12. Baltimore called its timeouts on defense at 5:25, 5:21 and 2:54, getting the ball back just once.

Teams frequently have only two meaningful drives in the final 10 minutes. Some save their timeouts for the very end. Others call them higher. Either way, teams in the situation Arizona faced Sunday are basically doomed.

Seattle took the clock from 7:16 to the two-minute warning with its drive to a field goal, even with Arizona using all three timeouts during the drive. The Cardinals made it 0-37 since 2000 for teams in their predicament.

(Photo of Sean McDermott: Harry How / Getty Images)